California’s dream of affordable housing is crumbling faster than a sandcastle at high tide under Governor Gavin Newsom’s watch.
The Daily Caller reported that after nearly seven years in office, Newsom’s bold promises to tackle the state’s housing shortage have collided with a harsh reality of skyrocketing costs, stagnant construction, and a mass exodus of residents seeking affordability elsewhere.
Back in 2018, Newsom campaigned on a pledge to build 3.5 million new housing units by 2025, a target that sounded ambitious but necessary for a state drowning in unaffordable rents and mortgages.
That goal was quietly downgraded in 2022 to 2.5 million units by 2030, with Newsom calling the original number a “stretch goal.” Well, stretching seems to be all that’s happened, as the results are anything but impressive.
Under the initial timeframe, California managed to add just over 737,000 privately owned housing units—barely a fifth of what was promised. Even at the peak of construction in 2022, only 120,780 units were built, a far cry from the pace needed.
Fast forward to the first eight months of 2025, and the numbers are even grimmer, with about 16,000 fewer units produced compared to the same period in 2022.
To hit the revised target of 2.5 million by 2030, the state would need to ramp up to roughly 310,000 units annually—a Herculean task given the current slowdown.
The consequences of this shortfall are hitting Californians hard, with homes now costing twice the national average, according to a recent state Legislative Analyst’s Office report.
Over 40% of residents are worried about making rent or mortgage payments, per a Public Policy Institute survey. It’s no wonder the state leads the nation in negative net migration as families pack up for greener, or at least cheaper, pastures.
In 2025, Newsom signed two bills aimed at easing the crisis: AB 130, which cuts through some permitting red tape by loosening strict environmental oversight, and SB 79, pushing for high-density housing near transit hubs.
Sounds promising on paper, but dig deeper, and there’s a catch. AB 130 includes a vehicle miles traveled tax on developers in areas with limited transit, a fee that can easily be passed on to buyers and renters.
Republican State Senator Tony Strickland isn’t buying the hype, pointing out that permitting delays remain a massive hurdle. “When it takes you ten years to build a development, that’s going to be passed on to the consumer,” Strickland told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
And he’s right—decade-long delays in places like Huntington Beach aren’t just bureaucratic nonsense; they’re a direct tax on anyone hoping to own a home. Then there’s the criticism of Newsom’s push for urbanization through bills like SB 79, which some argue ignores the preferences of many Californians.
Strickland noted, “A lot of Californians want to live in rural areas or they want to live in suburban areas.” Forcing density might check a progressive box, but it risks alienating those who don’t want to stack up in urban towers.
In 2021, Newsom launched the Housing and Homelessness Accountability Unit, a move his office claims has “unlocked” over 7,500 units in the past two years, per a September 2024 press release. That’s a drop in the bucket for a state needing millions of homes, and it’s hard to see this as more than a PR win when production numbers keep sliding.
A spokesperson for Newsom defended the governor’s record to the Daily Caller News Foundation, insisting he’s laid a “generational and foundational model” for housing success through streamlined permitting and big investments.
But with just one year left in his term, and no significant uptick in construction, it’s tough to see the foundation holding anything up. Californians aren’t buying promises—they’re begging for results.
Critics like Strickland argue that hidden costs, like the vehicle miles traveled fee, will only deepen the affordability mess. The Los Angeles Business Federation echoed this, warning that such taxes could add nearly $200,000 to the cost of a new home and spike rents by over $1,300 monthly. That’s not a solution; it’s a sucker punch to low-income families already struggling.
With Newsom’s term winding down, the clock is ticking to turn this ship around, but the horizon looks bleak. Developers are likely to pass on new fees from recent laws to homebuyers and renters in the coming year, further squeezing wallets.
The housing crisis isn’t just about numbers—it’s about dreams deferred for millions of Californians who can’t afford a roof over their heads. Newsom’s policies might have good intentions, but good intentions don’t pay the bills or build homes overnight.
