Andrew Rice, a deputy commonwealth's attorney in Virginia Beach, crushed Democrat Cheryl Smith in the special election for Virginia House of Delegates District 98, capturing 62.46 percent of the vote to Smith's 37.5 percent with more than 11,000 votes counted as of 1 a.m. Eastern.
That's not a narrow hold in friendly territory. That's a 25-point blowout that outperformed the seat's previous Republican margin.
When Barry Knight last won the district in 2025, he took 56.6 percent to Smith's 43.2 percent. Rice didn't just hold the seat after Knight's death last month. He widened the gap by nearly six points against the same Democratic opponent.
Democrats have spent the early months of Trump's second term building a narrative around special election wins, flipping GOP-held seats and presenting each victory as proof of a coming wave. The theory was simple: backlash politics would carry them through 2026 the way it carried them through the November 2025 Virginia elections, where they picked up 13 seats in the House of Delegates.
Virginia's District 98 punched a hole in that theory. So did Pennsylvania.
On the same night, Republican Catherine Wallen is projected to beat Democrat Todd Crawley in a special election for Pennsylvania's 193rd House District, according to Decision Desk HQ. Republicans held onto both Pennsylvania state House seats that were up for grabs. One of those districts had been represented by Democrats since 1972.
Republican State Leadership Committee President Edith Jorge-Tuñón framed the results in unmistakable terms when she spoke to Newsweek:
"Last night's results shatter Democrats' so-called 'special election momentum.' In states like Pennsylvania and Virginia, voters rejected the claim that Democrats have a better handle on the issues that matter most and pushed back on the failed policies they continue to champion. These wins prove Republicans can break through and compete in tough environments, and the RSLC is building momentum to win nationwide in 2026."
The district posted 18 percent voter turnout, with more than 11,700 ballots cast according to the Virginia Department of Elections. Special elections always carry the asterisk of low participation, and Democrats will surely point to that number to minimize the result.
But low-turnout elections test something specific: which party's voters are motivated enough to show up when nobody is making them. In District 98, the answer was decisive. Republican voters didn't just show up. They showed up in force, delivering a margin that suggests enthusiasm, not complacency.
Republicans themselves have cautioned that special election races "have never been predictive of general elections." Fair enough. But there's a difference between predictive and revealing. These results reveal that the Democratic narrative of unstoppable momentum is, at minimum, overstated.
Rice previously told local reporters he wanted to prioritize supporting the agricultural community, protecting green space, and tackling affordability. After the results came in, he kept it simple:
"I'm so thankful for their support and I can't wait to get to work for them in Richmond."
No grandiose promises. No culture war theatrics. A prosecutor who talked about the cost of living and the concerns of his community, and won by 25 points. There's a lesson in that for every Republican candidate heading into 2026: run on the things people actually deal with, and the voters will find you.
The next major test arrives in California, where the seat left vacant by the death of Republican Representative Doug LaMalfa in January at age 65 will go to a special election. Governor Gavin Newsom set the contest for August 4, with a primary on June 2. That race will unfold on very different terrain, but the dynamics of engagement and motivation remain the same.
Midterm elections arrive in November 2026. Between now and then, every special election will be scrutinized for signs of which way the wind is blowing. Democrats spent weeks telling anyone who would listen that the wind was at their backs.
In Virginia and Pennsylvania, it blew the other direction.
