A forensic psychologist now claims the two ransom notes in the Nancy Guthrie disappearance were written by different people with different motives, an analysis complicated by the FBI's earlier finding that none of the notes are genuine.
Gary Brucato, a forensic psychologist, told NewsNation journalist Brian Entin on Friday that the language, tone, and psychology of the two notes point to at least two distinct authors operating behind a third person, the masked figure caught on surveillance video at Guthrie's porch in Catalina Hills, Arizona. Brucato believes three people were involved in the 84-year-old woman's disappearance, the New York Post reported.
Nancy Guthrie, the mother of television personality Savannah Guthrie, vanished from her Arizona home earlier this year. Six months later, no suspect has been named, no arrest has been made, and her body has not been recovered. The case has drawn national attention and a direct presidential response, yet the central question, what happened to an 84-year-old woman inside her own home, remains unanswered.
The first ransom note arrived on February 2 and demanded $4 million in bitcoin. It contained two details that, according to Brucato's analysis, implied some familiarity with the Guthrie home in Catalina Hills. The second note came four days later, on February 6, and struck a markedly different tone. Rather than demanding money, it announced that Nancy Guthrie had died.
Brucato told Entin the contradiction between the two notes was the key to his analysis:
"The first one is demanding money and the second one is undoing the ability of the first person to get money, which suggests to me that the first person would've been kinda mad that the second person wrote the note."
The second note, addressed broadly to "the Guthrie family" rather than to Savannah Guthrie specifically, read in part: "We never intended to hurt her, that was not our intention. She perished shortly after she was taken." It added: "She is buried in nature now. Nothing you could have done could have changed the outcome." The note also claimed the kidnappers "did not fully grasp the seriousness of her physical condition."
Brucato characterized the second note's author as someone driven by "money and something else, emotion, something that was preyed upon." He suspects that author is a woman who may have known Savannah Guthrie and was attempting to distance herself from the crime. He described the masked porch figure, by contrast, as a hired hand, "some sort of goon that was put there to give the impression of a totally outside agent who never met this woman who came in to do the dirty work."
Savannah Guthrie has made repeated emotional public appeals for information about her mother's whereabouts, including acknowledging the possibility that Nancy may already be dead.
Brucato's analysis, however detailed, runs headlong into a problem: federal investigators have already determined that all three kidnapping-related messages in the case are fake. Newsmax reported that an FBI official, speaking anonymously to Reuters, said flatly: "None of the ransom notes are believed to be genuine."
The FBI reached that conclusion in part through a test. Agents deposited cryptocurrency as instructed in the first ransom note. No one ever claimed the funds. Investigators also determined that the first two notes originated from the same sender, someone they concluded had no actual connection to Guthrie's disappearance. A third note, from a person claiming to know the kidnappers' identities, was likewise dismissed.
That finding reframes Brucato's psychological analysis in an uncomfortable light. If the notes were not written by anyone involved in the crime, then parsing the motives and emotional states of their authors may tell investigators more about opportunists and hoaxers than about whoever took Nancy Guthrie from her home.
The case has also been complicated by the FBI's finding that a four-day delay by the Pima County Sheriff's Office may have cost investigators critical surveillance video from the early hours of the disappearance.
Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos has maintained publicly that his office's investigation remains active and aggressive. At a February 5 press conference, Nanos revealed that Nancy Guthrie's pacemaker app disconnected at 2:28 a.m., a data point that helped establish a timeline for whatever happened inside the home. He described the digital and DNA evidence analysis as "complex and time-intensive."
Nanos released the two ransom notes publicly, hoping someone would recognize the distinctive language. "We hope that by releasing the actual note, we'll get some response from the community," Nanos told Fox News. He added: "We're still here. We are not going away. If you could just see the team working, you would see the energy, the concern. They're fired up, and we'll continue to work this case hard."
It remains unclear, even to investigators, whether the two released notes were penned by the same person. The sheriff's office has been reviewing tens of thousands of tips, video clips, and forensic leads. But six months in, no suspect or person of interest has been publicly identified, a fact the sheriff has acknowledged while maintaining he remains "positive" the case will be solved.
One tangible forensic lead has emerged. Investigators recovered 16 gloves near the Guthrie residence, and one contained a DNA profile that appears to match gloves worn by the suspect in surveillance footage. The FBI sent that DNA to a private lab in Florida for analysis, with plans to enter the male suspect's profile into the national criminal database. An FBI spokesperson confirmed that the glove with the DNA profile "is different and appears to match the gloves of the subject in the surveillance video."
That development has been shadowed by reported tensions between the FBI and the Pima County Sheriff's Office over evidence handling, though Nanos has denied any wrongdoing. The sheriff has also refused to permanently clear anyone in the case, even as a detained man has sought $3.25 million in damages.
Meanwhile, the rise of AI-generated deepfakes has added another layer of difficulty. FBI Phoenix chief Heith Janke publicly acknowledged that traditional proof-of-life verification is no longer reliable. "With AI these days you can make videos that appear to be very real," Janke told the AP. "So we can't just take a video and trust that that's proof of life because of advancements in AI." At least three news organizations received purported ransom notes that were turned over to investigators. A California man was separately charged with sending extortion texts to the Guthrie family demanding bitcoin, though he is not suspected of involvement in the disappearance itself.
Brucato framed his analysis as a window into the psychology of the people behind the crime. He told Entin there is "something going on in the dynamic that's causing a rupture and yet for some reason no one has come forward." He compared the emotional state of a non-psychopathic participant to someone who "put all of your money into a slot machine and it went up in smoke."
But Brucato's entire framework assumes the note writers were involved in the abduction. The FBI's determination that the notes are fake, and that the first two came from someone with no connection to the crime, undercuts that assumption at its foundation. If the notes were written by people outside the conspiracy, their psychological "rupture" reflects nothing about what actually happened to Nancy Guthrie.
President Trump directed all federal law enforcement to assist local authorities early in the case. "I spoke with Savannah Guthrie, and let her know that I am directing ALL Federal Law Enforcement to be at the family's, and Local Law Enforcement's, complete disposal, IMMEDIATELY," Trump said at the time. That federal involvement has produced the DNA lead, the cryptocurrency test, and the deepfake warning, but not, so far, an arrest.
An anonymous emailer has also surfaced claiming to possess video of the "main guy" with Nancy Guthrie, adding yet another unverified thread to a case already tangled with false leads and hoax communications.
Six months, three fake ransom notes, tens of thousands of tips, and a DNA-bearing glove, and still no one can say with certainty what happened to an 84-year-old woman in her own home. The experts and the analysts can theorize all they want. What this case needs is not another theory. It needs an answer.
