National Rally leader Marine Le Pen holds a decisive lead over rivals in the latest Elabe poll for next year’s French presidential election, unsettling the Paris establishment as her party vows to put mass immigration to a national vote.
With just eight months before voters are set to replace President Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen is now projected to come out on top in the first round of the contest, and to beat every major opponent in the final runoff, according to results from a new Elabe survey. The poll, which asked French voters about their intentions for both rounds of the upcoming election, showed Le Pen leading a crowded field that includes former prime ministers, leftist challengers, and rivals from the political center.
The National Rally leader, who has campaigned three times for the presidency, is estimated to capture between 34 and 35.5 percent of first-round votes, depending on which candidates ultimately make the ballot. That puts her well ahead of her closest challenger, former Macronist prime minister Édouard Philippe, who is projected to secure between 17 and 20.5 percent. The same polling suggests Le Pen would defeat any of her likely second-round opponents, including Philippe, leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, socialist Raphaël Glucksmann, and current government figure Gabriel Attal.
This commanding position comes despite open hostility from much of the Paris political and media class, an echo of the fierce opposition seen by populist figures in the United States. As Breitbart’s reporting notes, Le Pen’s strength draws a sharp contrast with her rivals, whose support remains fractured and in some cases, declining.
Among the left, Mélenchon is estimated at 14 to 14.5 percent, while Glucksmann has seen his numbers climb to between 11.5 and 14 percent. On the center-right, Bruno Retailleau is projected at 6 to 7 percent, and Reconquest leader Éric Zemmour lags further behind at 4 to 4.5 percent. The poll also reports that one in five former Républicain voters may defect to Le Pen, suggesting her appeal now stretches beyond the party’s traditional base.
The Elabe projections offer little comfort to Le Pen’s opponents. In head-to-head second-round scenarios, she is estimated to defeat Mélenchon in a landslide, by nearly 40 points, with 69.5 percent to his 30.5 percent. Against Glucksmann or Attal, Le Pen is projected to win 57 percent to 43 percent. Even in a matchup with Philippe, considered her most difficult opponent, she is still ahead 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent.
That polling dominance aligns with growing voter frustration over mass migration and security, issues championed by Le Pen’s party. Her second-in-command, Jordan Bardella, described as the likely prime minister if National Rally wins, has pledged to immediately initiate a nationwide referendum on immigration if elected. The proposed ballot would ask voters whether to abolish birthright citizenship, reserve welfare benefits for citizens, and expel foreign criminals.
Bardella has made his stance clear, declaring: “Immigration threatens our security and our public finances. Of the 500,000 people who enter France legally each year, only 50,000 have an employment contract. The others are a burden on the taxpayer: this is no longer acceptable! We will finally restore order.” He has also called for the “systematic expulsion of foreign offenders and criminals.”
This sharper focus on national identity and sovereignty puts France’s debate in step with other Western nations facing similar challenges. The controversy over birthright citizenship, for example, has also surfaced in the United States, where the courts have recently been asked to weigh in on President Trump’s executive orders addressing the issue, highlighting a transatlantic pattern of conservative leaders challenging liberal immigration norms. Legal battles over new citizenship rules in the U.S. mirror the referendum promises now central to Le Pen’s campaign.
Despite her strong polling, Le Pen’s campaign continues to face fierce resistance from the French political and media elite, often compared to the entrenched opposition seen by populist and conservative leaders elsewhere. The Paris press and establishment have long criticized her party, yet the latest survey suggests their influence may be waning as voters demand a tougher line on security and migration. This echoes the partisan divides in the U.S., where Democratic figures have repeatedly clashed with Trump-era officials over border security, immigration, and the limits of executive power, conflicts covered in stories like Democratic pushback against Trump’s border policies.
Meanwhile, Le Pen’s competitors remain split. Philippe, mayor of Le Havre and a former prime minister under Macron, is seen as her most credible challenger but trails by double digits in the first round and still falls short in the runoff. The left, led by Mélenchon and Glucksmann, continues to divide its base. Attal, another former Macron prime minister, has seen his own support decline over the past month and risks splitting the centrist vote further. Such fragmentation has parallels to American politics, where internal divisions frequently weaken opposition to strong outsider campaigns, as seen in Democratic infighting during high-profile races.
As the election approaches, National Rally’s message of restoring order and limiting migration is poised to test the staying power of France’s political establishment. If Le Pen prevails, her party has promised sweeping changes not only to immigration policy but to the very definition of French citizenship, an agenda that would ripple across the European Union.
With the left and center still divided, and the mainstream press struggling to turn the tide, France’s voters may soon deliver a rebuke to the political class that has long dismissed conservative concerns about sovereignty, security, and the rule of law. That challenge to the old order tracks with recent American fights over free speech, executive power, and the legacy of past administrations, as in the court case involving a progressive protest symbol near the National Mall protected by a federal judge, where establishment interests have tried, and often failed, to suppress populist dissent.
France’s political elite may not like it, but voters seem ready to chart a new course, one that puts national interest, law and order, and the will of the people first.
