Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, a rock-solid Republican bastion, is teetering on the edge of a political earthquake just days before a critical special election.
The Daily Caller reported that this unexpected nail-biter, set for Dec. 2, 2025, pits Republican Matt Van Epps against Democrat Aftyn Behn in a contest that could tip the GOP’s razor-thin House majority into perilous territory.
The vacancy opened up when Rep. Mark Green stepped down in July after the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, opting for a private-sector gig.
A recent poll by Emerson College Polling/The Hill, surveying 600 likely voters from Nov. 22 to 24, revealed Van Epps clinging to a mere 48% to 46% lead over Behn, well within the ±3.9% margin of error.
Even when undecided voters are pushed to pick a side, Van Epps only edges up to 49% against Behn’s 47%, signaling a race too close for comfort in a district that’s typically a GOP fortress.
With 5% still undecided, every door knocked and every vote cast could shift the balance in this traditionally red region stretching from Kentucky to Alabama, including a slice of downtown Nashville.
The election’s timing, falling on the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, might dampen turnout—a factor that could play into Behn’s hands if conservative voters stay home.
Early voting data already shows Behn leading 56% to 42% among those who’ve cast ballots ahead of time, while Van Epps dominates Election Day intentions at 51% to 39%.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Kimball’s analysis doesn’t stop there—he notes a generational split that could define this race, with Behn capturing a whopping 64% of voters under 40 while Van Epps secures 61% of those over 70.
That youthful enthusiasm for Behn might be a warning sign for conservatives who’ve long relied on older, reliable voters to carry the day in districts like this one.
If Behn pulls off a win, the Republican House majority could shrink to a single seat—a sobering thought for those who value a strong check on progressive policies.
Behn’s campaign hammers away at kitchen-table issues like soaring grocery bills and healthcare expenses, hoping to capitalize on voter frustration over affordability, which ranks high among district concerns at 15%, just behind the economy at nearly 40%.
“Angry about high grocery prices? Worried about health care costs?” Behn asks in a recent ad, before adding, “Feeling burned by tariffs? Then Dec. 2 is your day to shake up Washington.”
While her economic focus might resonate, Republicans are quick to spotlight Behn’s past stances on defunding police and abolishing prisons—positions that could alienate moderates who might otherwise be swayed by her cost-of-living rhetoric.
