Democratic voters are moving away from mail ballots and toward in-person voting for the 2026 midterms, changing when both parties can expect their strongest returns.
Only 23% of registered Democrats plan to vote by mail, an NBC News poll found. That figure stood at 34% in mid-September 2024.
The shift does not mean Democrats are abandoning early voting. Instead, more plan to cast ballots in person before Election Day, forcing campaigns to rethink how and when they turn out supporters.
Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies surveyed 1,000 registered voters through telephone interviews and an online survey sent by text message. The poll ran from Sept. 11 through Sept. 15 and had a 3.1-point margin of error.
NBC News reported that 36% of Democrats planned to vote early in person. That was six points higher than at a similar stage two years earlier.
“Instead, 36% of Democrats now say they plan to vote in person at an early voting site, up 6 points from a similar point two years ago.”
Another 36% planned to vote at their polling place on Election Day. That was close to the 35% recorded in 2024, while 5% were unsure or unlikely to vote.
The raw numbers point to a change in method, not necessarily enthusiasm. Democrats appear to be replacing some planned mail votes with early, in-person ballots rather than waiting for Election Day.
That logistical change arrives as Democrats also confront wider questions about the party’s direction, including recent New York primary upheaval. Those fights do not explain the poll result, but they add to the work facing party strategists.
Republican voting plans showed little movement from 2024. The poll found that 16% planned to vote by mail, 26% planned to vote early in person, and 53% expected to vote on Election Day.
That split matters for how election returns develop. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt said Democrats held a 23-point congressional-ballot advantage among early voters, while Republicans led Election Day voters by 14 points.
Early returns therefore may favor Democrats before Republican-heavy Election Day ballots enter the count. A change in Democratic voting habits could also spread the party’s votes across more stages of the election.
Such timing questions will compete with policy disputes, including the recent House Democratic split over aid to Israel. Campaigns still must persuade voters before worrying about when their ballots arrive.
Among independents, 25% planned to vote by mail, down from 28% in 2024. Another 28% chose early in-person voting, up from 22%.
Election Day remained the choice of 37% of independents, down from 41% in 2024. Fifteen percent were unsure or unlikely to cast a ballot.
Those figures show movement toward early voting sites across more than one political group. But the Democratic change was larger: an 11-point decline in planned mail voting from the 2024 figure.
Separate candidate disputes, such as the questions surrounding Graham Platner in Maine, may affect individual races. The poll makes no claim that such controversies caused the shift in voting methods.
Breitbart News reported that President Donald Trump wants to end mail-in voting. It also said his executive order sought new state criteria for sending mail ballots in the midterms.
The publication reported that the Supreme Court blocked that order on the evening of Sept. 14. The account did not identify the order number, case docket, or specific proposed criteria.
The poll does not explain why Democratic preferences changed. It also measures plans rather than ballots already cast, leaving campaigns to see whether voters follow through.
Clear rules and an honest count should serve every lawful voter, whatever method that voter chooses. Political parties still have one basic duty: earn the vote.
