Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds a commanding lead over Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 Republican primary, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez edges out former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg on the Democratic side, a new Atlas Polls survey finds.
The poll, which surveyed more than 2,000 Americans in early May, offers the earliest snapshot of how both parties' voters are sizing up the post-Trump landscape, and the results should worry Democrats far more than they comfort them.
Rubio led Vance 45.4% to 29.6% among Republican respondents, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis placing third. On the Democratic side, Ocasio-Cortez topped Buttigieg by a narrow margin, with California Gov. Gavin Newsom in third and former Vice President Kamala Harris trailing in fourth. The exact percentages for the Democratic candidates were not disclosed in the survey release.
Rubio's strong showing follows a week in which the secretary of state drew attention from fellow Republicans after stepping in for the White House press secretary during a briefing. The move showcased a comfort with the podium and a willingness to field hostile questions, qualities that primary voters tend to remember.
President Trump himself fueled the 2028 conversation on Tuesday, praising the idea of a future Vance-Rubio ticket.
"That was a perfect ticket. By the way, I do believe that's a dream team, but these are minor details. That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstance."
The comment was vintage Trump, a compliment wrapped in a disclaimer. But it placed both Rubio and Vance squarely in the 2028 conversation at a moment when the Atlas Polls data already showed Rubio with a nearly sixteen-point advantage over the vice president.
Vance's favorable rating in the poll stood at just 37%. That number, combined with his second-place finish, suggests the vice president has work to do if he wants to inherit the MAGA coalition outright.
The Democratic numbers tell a different story, one of a party groping for direction. Ocasio-Cortez's first-place finish comes even as 79% of all respondents told Atlas Polls that the Democratic Party is facing a leadership crisis. That is not a typo. Nearly four in five Americans see a party without a clear leader or message.
Ocasio-Cortez has done little to tamp down speculation about her future. During a May 8 interview with Obama adviser David Axelrod at the University of Chicago's Institute of Politics, the New York congresswoman was asked whether she was considering a run for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's seat or a presidential bid. Her answer was revealing.
"They assume my ambition is positional. My ambition is way bigger than that. My ambition is to change this country."
That is not the language of someone planning to stay in the House. Her broader political positioning has already drawn scrutiny, and the Atlas Polls result will only intensify the conversation.
But leading a demoralized party is not the same as winning a general election. Ocasio-Cortez carries the baggage of every progressive policy position she has championed, from Green New Deal economics to rhetoric that has alienated moderates and working-class voters who swung rightward in 2024.
Buttigieg narrowly trailed Ocasio-Cortez and has been the most active of the potential Democratic candidates, testing his messaging in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan, three states that matter early in any presidential calendar. His travel schedule alone signals serious intent.
Newsom, meanwhile, posted a 34% favorable rating. For a two-term governor of the nation's largest state, that number is strikingly low. It reflects the reality that California's governance record, homelessness, cost of living, population loss, is a liability outside the state's borders.
Harris, who lost the 2024 presidential race, placed fourth. Her presence in the field at all underscores how thin the Democratic bench has become. Ocasio-Cortez has faced broad backlash over her economic rhetoric, yet she still leads this group. That says less about her strength than about the weakness of the alternatives.
The Atlas Polls survey went well beyond 2028 horse-race numbers. On the question of the 2026 midterm elections, respondents favored Democrats over Republicans by 54% to 46%, an eight-point margin that, if it held, would signal serious trouble for the GOP's congressional majorities.
Economic anxiety is driving much of the discontent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation rose to 3.8% in April, the highest annual increase since 2023. Gas and oil prices have climbed. These are kitchen-table realities that shape voter sentiment long before anyone casts a primary ballot.
Trump's job approval reflected that pressure. The poll found 59.8% of respondents disapproved of his job performance. Foreign policy added to the headwinds: 59% opposed the president's decision to launch military strikes on Iran, even as a fragile ceasefire remains in place between the United States, Iran, and Israel. Ocasio-Cortez and her progressive allies rushed to condemn those strikes, a move that may play well in a Democratic primary but could prove reckless in a general election.
Trump himself described the ceasefire agreement in blunt terms on Monday.
"It's unbelievably weak, I would say. I would call it the weakest, right now, after reading that piece of garbage they sent us. I didn't even finish reading it. I said, they're going to waste my time reading it. I would say it's one of the weakest, right now, it's on life support."
The war began on Feb. 28, and the ceasefire's fragility means the Iran question will likely loom over both parties' primary debates for years to come.
One finding buried in the poll deserves attention. Only two public figures tested by Atlas Polls held net-positive favorable ratings: former President Barack Obama at 52% and former first lady Michelle Obama at 51%. No active politician in either party cleared that bar.
That gap between the Obamas and every current political figure captures something important about where the country stands. Voters are nostalgic for a political era that has passed and skeptical of everyone asking for their trust now. Ocasio-Cortez has already watched her own left flank turn against her on multiple occasions, a reminder that leading a fractious coalition is harder than winning an online poll.
Polls taken three years before an election are snapshots, not prophecies. Name recognition drives early surveys, and both Rubio and Ocasio-Cortez benefit from high media profiles. The Atlas Polls methodology, including margin of error, weighting, and exact question wording, was not detailed in the release, which means these numbers deserve the usual caution.
Still, the survey captures real dynamics. The Republican field has a clear frontrunner in Rubio, a credible second in Vance, and a bench that includes a battle-tested governor in DeSantis. That is a competitive primary with experienced candidates.
The Democratic field, by contrast, is led by a House member with no executive experience, trailed by a former cabinet secretary still testing his message, a governor with underwater favorability, and a defeated vice president. And 79% of the country thinks the party has a leadership crisis. The political network around Ocasio-Cortez may energize the progressive base, but energizing a base and assembling a majority are two very different things.
Democrats can put Ocasio-Cortez at the top of their polls. The harder question is whether a party that four out of five Americans say lacks leadership can build something around her that the rest of the country would actually vote for.
