Six weeks after Nancy Guthrie vanished from her Tucson, Ariz., home, the Pima County sheriff now says investigators believe they know why she was taken.
In an NBC News interview published on Thursday, March 12, Sheriff Chris Nanos revealed that authorities have developed a working theory of motive, one they've held since the earliest hours of the case. But he stopped short of sharing it publicly.
"We believe we know why [the kidnapper] did this and we believe that it was targeted, but we're not 100% sure of that."
People reported that Nancy Guthrie, the mother of Today co-host Savannah Guthrie, remains missing. No suspects or persons of interest have been identified. The case is now nearly in its seventh week.
The investigation has centered on surveillance footage from Feb. 1, the morning of the kidnapping, which appears to show a masked, armed person tampering with Nancy Guthrie's doorbell camera. The FBI and Pima County Sheriff's Department have both pointed to this footage as a critical piece of evidence.
The FBI's Phoenix office described the suspect as a male, approximately 5'9" to 5'10" tall, with an average build. He was carrying a black, 25-liter "Ozark Trail Hiker Pack" backpack. Beyond that physical sketch, the public knows almost nothing about who this person is.
Investigators have also recovered what Nanos described as "mixed" DNA from Nancy's home, and he said they remain hopeful it will lead them to "somebody." The sheriff's department had previously requested Ring camera footage from local homes, and the Pima County Sheriff's Department and FBI were recently seen canvassing the neighborhood.
On Friday, March 6, NBC's Liz Kreutz reported on the Today show that several neighbors said investigators asked whether they experienced any internet service disruptions the night Nancy went missing.
Nanos confirmed investigators were looking into possible internet glitches, a detail that suggests the kidnapper may have taken steps to disable neighborhood surveillance systems before acting.
That level of preparation tells a story all by itself.
Nanos walked a careful line in the interview, projecting confidence without offering specifics. He said the investigative theory has remained consistent from the beginning.
"I think it's come out from day one. I think day one, we had some strong beliefs about what happened and those beliefs haven't diminished."
When pressed further, he declined to elaborate.
"I'm not going to get into those theories. We have our beliefs. Everybody else has theirs."
That kind of restraint from a sheriff can signal two very different things. It can mean the investigation is closing in and authorities don't want to compromise their work. Or it can mean the trail is cold and there's nothing substantive to share. Six weeks in, with no named suspect and no arrest, the public is left to read between the lines.
What Nanos did say plainly was that no one in the area should feel safe simply because they aren't Nancy Guthrie.
"So it'd be silly to tell people, 'Don't worry about it. You're not his target.' You could be. Don't think for a minute that because it happened to the Guthrie family, you're safe. No. Keep your wits about you."
That warning carries weight. If investigators truly believe this was a targeted act, the admonition to remain vigilant suggests either that the suspect remains at large with the capacity to act again, or that the "targeted" theory hasn't solidified enough to rule out broader danger.
Adding another layer of complexity: on Thursday, Feb. 19, a spokesperson for the Pima County Sheriff's Department told PEOPLE that investigators are looking into the possibility that the person seen on surveillance footage may have had an accomplice.
That detail transforms the picture. A lone masked intruder who disables cameras and abducts a woman from her home is alarming. A coordinated operation involving multiple actors is something else entirely.
The possible disruption of internet service in the neighborhood, the tampering with the doorbell camera, the backpack suggesting premeditation. These are not the hallmarks of a crime of opportunity. Someone planned this. Perhaps more than one someone.
Cases like this expose the uncomfortable gap between what law enforcement knows and what it can act on. Nanos has all but said investigators understand the motive and believe the crime was deliberate. Yet nearly seven weeks have passed without an arrest, without a named person of interest, and without Nancy Guthrie coming home.
For her family, including her daughter Savannah, the wait is its own kind of cruelty. For the Tucson community, the sheriff's warning not to let their guard down is a reminder that an armed kidnapper who planned meticulously enough to disable surveillance technology is still out there.
The DNA, the footage, the canvassing, the theories held since "day one." All of it points somewhere. The question is whether it points there fast enough.
