Trump-aligned groups have spent more than $163 million on midterm ads since early September, with nearly 40 percent flowing into states and districts President Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
The Daily Caller reported that Republican super PACs and Trump-aligned organizations are pouring heavy advertising money into places that once looked locked down for the GOP, as party strategists treat historically safe ground as must-defend territory ahead of the 2026 midterms.
MAGA Inc., No Going Back PAC, and Safety and Affordability PAC together spent more than $163 million on advertising and air time since Sept. 1. Nearly 40 percent of that total, about $63 million, went into states and House districts Trump won by at least ten points in 2024.
That pattern signals a real shift. Money that might have padded toss-up races is now covering ground the party used to take for granted.
Republicans expect to spend between $150 million and $200 million in Texas to keep Attorney General Ken Paxton from losing a Senate seat Trump carried easily. The Senate Leadership Fund’s Texas super PAC will put more than $100 million into television ads after adding over $35 million on top of $65 million already reserved.
Cook Political Report rated the Texas Senate race a toss-up as of Aug. 20. Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico, who has drawn fire for naming a favorite drag queen, saying God was “non-binary,” and describing trans-identifying children as “God’s children” and “loved beyond measure.”
Paxton has his own baggage. His then-wife, Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in July 2025 over an extramarital affair. He has also been tied to ethical controversies, including a proposed plea deal that would have let a man who admitted sexually abusing a young boy serve only one day in jail.
Even with those headaches, the party is writing big checks rather than risk a flip in a deep-red state.
Ohio’s Senate race has drawn more than $307 million in combined advertising from both parties, making it the most expensive Senate contest so far this cycle. Republicans alone have spent over $152 million to defend Sen. Jon Husted against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is trying to reclaim the seat.
No Going Back PAC slotted $11 million into Ohio as part of a broader $49 million plan across seven races. Crypto super PAC Fairshake has spent $30 million opposing Brown, a longtime critic of the industry.
The spending does not stop at the Senate map. The Congressional Leadership Fund placed a $4.85 million ad buy running from Sept. 30 to Nov. 3 to back Republican Rep. Max Miller against Democrat Brian Poindexter. Miller has faced domestic violence allegations. His district is among the House seats Trump won by double digits that have absorbed more than $110 million in Republican ad bookings since Aug. 1.
Republicans have booked about $73 million in Iowa ads. The Senate Leadership Fund added $4 million in August to help Rep. Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek. Vice President J.D. Vance campaigned in the state on Sept. 18 for Republican gubernatorial nominee Zach Lahn and Rep. Zach Nunn, one of the cycle’s most endangered incumbents.
Conservative commentator and Iowa native Steve Deace issued a stark assessment after pollsters briefed Iowa House Republicans.
Deace wrote on X:
"Yesterday, Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a +15 district you’re within the margin for error, if you’re in a +10 district you’re underwater, and that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006... Whatever we’re doing or not doing in Iran/Hormuz has become a 2020 Covid lockdown level of political albatross. This is approaching TARP bailout levels of unpopular in my home state. We are risking what’s left of the Trump presidency on this, because if Democrats take control the legislative branch the Trump domestic agenda we all voted for will largely cease between what a Democrat Congress will do and the courts have already been doing."
His point was straightforward. Districts that once looked safe by double-digit margins are now inside the error range or worse, and the political cost of foreign-policy friction is landing hard with voters at home.
In Alaska, Republican and Trump-aligned groups have booked around $36.4 million in Senate ads, compared with $21.6 million reserved by Democrats. Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in a competitive race complicated by ranked-choice voting and another candidate who shares Sullivan’s name, a filing Republicans say was meant to confuse voters and help Peltola.
The Senate Leadership Fund reserved $15 million for the Alaska race in April and added another $2 million in August. Peltola has faced allegations from former aides of profane outbursts, shoving a staffer, requiring aides to feed live crickets to her pet chameleon, and sending text messages that used a slur against a commercial fishery executive who posted a selfie with her.
Even in a state Trump won comfortably, the GOP is not treating the seat as settled.
No Going Back PAC announced $49 million for seven races, including $15 million in Michigan, $11 million in Ohio, $10 million in New Hampshire, and $4 million in Maine. The Senate Leadership Fund added $6 million in Michigan in August to help former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers.
Vance has campaigned in Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Kansas, and North Carolina. In Kansas he backed Sen. Roger Marshall, “Doc Marshall,” an OB-GYN by training, against Democrat Adam Hamilton at a Webco Manufacturing stop. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since George McGill won in 1932 and left office in January 1939.
Vance told the crowd:
"In Doc Marshall, you have a man who devoted his life to delivering babies and making sure that moms and children from every walk of life were safe and had the healthcare that they need. So I ask you this November to stand for a man who stood for moms and babies, to stand for a man who stood for all Kansas. Let’s stand for Doc Marshall and send the crazy people packing, ladies and gentlemen. Elect Roger Marshall to the U.S. Senate."
Separate reporting has noted that Marshall sued more than 700 patients for unpaid bills while practicing medicine, actions tied to 81 arrests. Vance addressed the race’s stakes without dwelling on that dispute.
Tech firms, sports-betting interests, billionaires, and other special-interest groups have directed about $1.2 billion into MAGA Inc., Fairshake, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and related vehicles ahead of the midterms. The arms race is bipartisan in scale even as the defensive map tilts toward red turf.
When a party has to drop nine figures to hold Texas, pad Ohio past $150 million on one side alone, book $73 million in Iowa, and out-reserve Democrats in Alaska, the old “safe seat” label has lost much of its meaning. Radical Democratic nominees, messy personal controversies on both sides, and a sour midterm climate have turned double-digit Trump country into expensive ground.
Voters who wanted a durable Trump agenda still have to finish the job at the ballot box, because the other side is not conceding a single inch of the map.
