The two leading Republicans in California's 2026 gubernatorial race are polling ahead of every Democrat in the field, a remarkable development in a state that hasn't elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The Daily Caller reported that an Emerson College poll released Wednesday shows GOP candidate Steve Hilton at 17%, with fellow Republican Chad Bianco and Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell tied at 14%. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter trails at 10%.
Those numbers represent a shift that would have been unthinkable in Sacramento just a few years ago. And the reason is simple: the Democratic vote is being shredded by a field of more than ten candidates, while Republican support is consolidating around two names.
The Emerson survey, conducted February 13 through 14 among 1,000 likely voters, shows Hilton gaining five points since December. Swalwell picked up two points over the same period. Bianco added one, while Porter actually lost a point.
The breakdown by party tells the real story:
Nearly a quarter of Democratic voters haven't picked a candidate. Thirty percent of independents are undecided, and among those who have decided, they're breaking heavily for the Republicans. Swalwell, the Democratic frontrunner, can barely crack single digits with independent voters.
A second survey from Tavern Research, conducted February 2 through 5 among 1,097 likely voters, placed Bianco at 20%, Hilton at 12%, and Swalwell at 10%.
California's top-two primary system sends the two highest vote-getters to the general election regardless of party. For years, this system has worked in Democrats' favor, frequently producing two-Democrat runoffs in deep blue districts and statewide races. Now it could work against them.
Elections expert Paul Mitchell warned KCRA3 Political Director Ashley Zavala on Sunday that there is roughly a 12% chance two Republicans could advance to the general election. He cautioned Democrats against dismissing the possibility outright.
Twelve percent doesn't sound like much. But with more than ten Democrats carving up a majority-party electorate and 22% of Democratic voters still undecided roughly four months before the primary, the fragmentation is real. The system Democrats built to lock out Republicans may be the mechanism that locks out Democrats.
There is, however, a fight within the GOP field that could complicate things. Hilton has pushed back on the narrative that two Republicans might advance, warning that two Democrats would most likely face off in November unless voters consolidate behind a single Republican.
He singled out Bianco, calling for him to exit the race during the January gubernatorial debate over allegations that Bianco knelt with Black Lives Matter protesters during the 2020 riots.
When Bianco posted the Tavern Research poll showing himself in the lead, Hilton's campaign dismissed it as a "fake" Democrat "internal poll" designed to "boost the weaker Republican." The campaign noted the poll had been passed through Xavier Becerra's gubernatorial campaign, a Democratic rival.
Hilton's campaign fired back directly:
"They know the BLM Bianco video will crater Republican turnout. Steve Hilton is leading in reputable independent polls, including the latest Emerson poll."
This is the central tension for California Republicans. Two candidates splitting the GOP vote could hand both general election slots to Democrats, despite the current polling advantage. The mathematics of a jungle primary are unforgiving. A unified Republican base backing one strong candidate could produce something California hasn't seen in over a decade: a genuinely competitive governor's race.
The Democratic bench in this race is strikingly weak. Swalwell, best known nationally for his spot on the House Intelligence Committee and a brief, forgettable presidential campaign, leads his own party's voters at just 23%. Katie Porter, who lost a Senate primary in 2024, sits at 14% among Democrats. Tom Steyer, who has already burned through hundreds of millions in failed political bids, pulls 12%.
None of them are consolidating the base. None of them are generating enthusiasm with independents. And they're running in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a wide margin, yet the top line of every public poll has a Republican's name on it.
The left has spent years treating California as a finished project, a permanently blue state where governance is a formality and elections are a coronation. That assumption bred complacency, and complacency bred a field so crowded that no one can break through.
Four months is a long time in politics. Polling this far out is directional, not definitive. But the direction should alarm every Democrat in Sacramento. Republicans don't need to win California to change it. They just need two slots on a November ballot that Democrats assumed already belonged to them.
