Vice President JD Vance still commands a dominant lead among Republican primary voters eyeing 2028, but a new Daily Mail/JL Partners poll shows his support slipping three points since the launch of Operation Epic Fury, while Secretary Marco Rubio has quietly climbed into a stronger second-place position.
Vance leads the Republican field with 50 percent support. Rubio has risen three points in the last month to 17 percent, solidifying his position as the clear second-place contender. Ron DeSantis trails in third at nine percent.
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, the numbers aren't close. Vance would defeat Rubio 62 percent to 27 percent. But the trendlines tell a more interesting story than the snapshot.
The shift in the numbers tracks directly with the Iran conflict. President Trump launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, and in the three weeks since, the political landscape has moved.
Gas prices have surged to a nationwide average of $4.00 a gallon, up from $2.90 before the conflict began. A fifth of the world's oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and that chokepoint is now at the center of American foreign policy.
Trump and Vance won the 2024 election with a platform built on two pillars: lowering the cost of living and avoiding new wars abroad. The tension between that mandate and the current operation is real, and voters are registering it.
Trump's approval rating has fallen to 42 percent, down from 48 percent before Operation Epic Fury launched. Vance nationally maintains a 47 percent approval rating, four points higher than the President, but his three-point dip in primary support suggests the Iran situation is creating drag even on the vice president's formidable standing.
Vance built his early political career opposing regime-change wars in the Middle East. That record is both an asset and an awkward fit as the Trump administration pursues a months-long effort to topple Iran's Islamic regime. Voters who backed the ticket expecting restraint abroad are watching closely.
Rubio's three-point climb is modest in isolation. But context matters. He is increasingly viewed as a potential Trump successor for 2028, and his approval sits at 34 percent, well behind Vance's 47 percent but high enough to sustain a credible campaign if the window opens.
The question is whether Rubio's rise reflects genuine enthusiasm or simply the natural beneficiary effect when a frontrunner softens. In early primary positioning, those two dynamics can look identical. They diverge later, when voters have to choose rather than browse.
Vance has yet to confirm whether he will run in 2028. He and his wife Usha are preparing to welcome their fourth child. The timeline of his decision will shape whether Rubio's current momentum becomes a real challenge or a footnote.
The Democratic primary field is even less settled. Kamala Harris remains the frontrunner at 22 percent, though she has dipped by one point. California Governor Gavin Newsom sits close behind at 19 percent, holding steady.
Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden's Transportation Secretary, has inched up to 11 percent, marking a one-point gain and placing him firmly in third. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has made the sharpest move, climbing three points to reach 8 percent and moving into fourth place.
That's a field where the frontrunner can't break 25 percent. Harris already lost a general election. Newsom carries the baggage of governing California, which conservatives will be happy to unpack at length.
Buttigieg's Transportation Department tenure gave voters a front-row seat to supply chain dysfunction and infrastructure delays. Shapiro is the most interesting name on the list, a swing-state governor whose rise suggests Democrats may be searching for someone who can actually win Pennsylvania rather than just talk about it.
None of them have articulated a message that meets the current moment. The country is dealing with rising gas prices and a foreign conflict. Democratic primary voters are window-shopping, not rallying.
Polls taken three years before a presidential election are snapshots of mood, not predictions. In March 2022, very few people had JD Vance on their 2024 vice presidential shortlist. The value of these numbers lies not in their permanence but in what they reveal about the pressures shaping both parties right now.
For Republicans, the central tension is clear. The base wants strength abroad and relief at home. When those two goals collide, the coalition gets uncomfortable.
Vance's three-point dip is a signal, not a crisis. Rubio's three-point rise is an opportunity, not a coronation.
For Democrats, the numbers reveal something worse than a weak frontrunner. They reveal the absence of a governing idea. Four candidates are clustered within fourteen points of each other, and none of them are running on anything voters can name.
The 2028 race is already being shaped by decisions made today. Gas at four dollars. A military operation in the Middle East.
A vice president whose brand was built on opposing exactly the kind of engagement now underway. These are the raw materials of a primary campaign, whether or not anyone has officially declared.
The candidates who understand that will run toward the tension. The ones who don't will be consumed by it.
