President Donald Trump said on June 10 that he is "not looking to renew" the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trilateral trade pact he championed during his first term as a replacement for NAFTA. With a mandatory review deadline set for July 1, 2026, the president's remarks put both neighbors on notice that Washington is prepared to let the deal lapse unless its terms are fundamentally reworked.
The statement, first reported by the Daily Caller, came the same day Reuters flagged Trump's suggestion that the agreement may not survive its first scheduled renewal checkpoint. Canada and Mexico have both called for renewal. The United States, it now appears, has other ideas.
Trump framed the issue in blunt terms:
"We don't need anything Canada has, we don't need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have, and they have to treat us better."
That line captures the White House posture heading into a three-week window before the July 1 decision point. If any of the three parties declines to extend the pact for another 16 years, the agreement does not vanish overnight. Instead, it triggers mandatory annual reviews designed to resolve disputes before the deal formally expires in 2036. But the signal is unmistakable: the president who signed USMCA into existence now views it as a flawed instrument.
A day before Trump's public comments, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer appeared on Fox Business' "Mornings With Maria" and outlined the administration's grievances in detail. Greer pointed to rising trade deficits with both Canada and Mexico during the years USMCA has been in force, a result that contradicts the deal's original promise.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative describes USMCA's purpose as fostering "more balanced, reciprocal trade supporting high-paying jobs for Americans and grow the North American economy." Greer's assessment suggests reality has not matched the brochure.
"You have the USMCA underlying the relationship right now, we've seen a lot of flaws in that, we've seen our deficit go up with both countries over the years that USMCA has been in place. We're trying to fix the flaws in that program."
One specific problem Greer identified: enforcement of rules of origin. Those rules determine how much of a product must be manufactured within North America for it to qualify for duty-free treatment. Greer said the administration wants to tighten those provisions to prevent foreign manufacturers from routing goods through Mexico to dodge tariffs.
"We're trying to change the rules, we call them rules of origin, to make sure people aren't using Mexico as a third country hub."
That concern is not new. For years, critics have warned that Chinese and other foreign manufacturers were exploiting Mexico's USMCA access to ship goods into the U.S. market at preferential rates, effectively turning the agreement into a backdoor around American trade policy. The administration's willingness to let the deal expire rather than paper over the problem marks a sharp escalation.
Greer told Fox Business that the United States is "actively engaging in formal, ongoing negotiations with Mexico." But Canada is a different story. Greer cited disagreements with Ottawa and pointed specifically to the "retaliatory tariffs" Canada has placed on American goods.
In March 2025, Canada imposed 25% tariffs on a range of U.S. products, citing Trump's tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel. While Ottawa later removed some of those duties, tariffs on steel, aluminum, and certain automotive parts remain in effect, as the Canadian Federation of Independent Business has noted.
That ongoing retaliation has made productive negotiations difficult. Greer said the administration expects Canada to come to terms similar to whatever arrangement emerges with Mexico, but made clear that progress with Ottawa has stalled. The administration's broader approach to major policy priorities has shown a consistent willingness to push hard and accept short-term friction for longer-term leverage.
"We would expect the same for Canada when we're able to get to some kind of arrangement with them."
The word "when", not "if", suggests the administration views Canadian compliance as inevitable, even if the timeline remains uncertain.
USMCA took effect on July 1, 2020, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement that had governed continental commerce since 1994. A Congressional Research Service product on the agreement, catalogued under CRS report R48787, lays out the renewal mechanics. The three nations must decide by July 1, 2026, whether to extend the pact for an additional 16 years.
If any party declines, the agreement enters a phase of mandatory annual reviews. Those reviews are intended to give the parties time to negotiate fixes. If the disputes remain unresolved, USMCA formally expires in 2036.
That ten-year runway means the sky does not fall on July 2. But declining to renew sends a powerful negotiating signal, one that could reshape trade relations across the continent. Trump appears to be betting that the threat of a lapsed agreement gives Washington more leverage, not less. The same instinct for structural pressure has defined his administration's approach across foreign policy and national security as well.
The political ripple effects are already visible north of the border. Ontario Premier Doug Ford traveled to Washington in the days surrounding Trump's remarks. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce had planned to host Ford on Monday, but the Toronto Sun reported that the event was cancelled.
The Toronto Sun alleged that "the real reason is the Chamber's desire not to anger Trump." The paper cited multiple unnamed sources suggesting that scheduling was not the actual issue. Ford reportedly met with other members of the U.S. government during his visit, including Republican North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer.
The Chamber's reported decision to scrap the Ford event tells its own story. Washington's most prominent business lobby apparently calculated that hosting a Canadian premier while the president openly questions the trade deal was not worth the political risk. That kind of deference suggests the business establishment reads Trump's threat as credible.
The Daily Caller reached out to the Office of the United States Trade Representative for comment on Greer's Fox Business appearance and was directed to a Trump press conference scheduled for Wednesday.
There is a reasonable debate about whether USMCA should be renewed as-is, renegotiated, or allowed to expire. What is not debatable is that the deal has not delivered on its core promise. Trade deficits with both Canada and Mexico have grown since the agreement took effect. Rules of origin have been exploited. And Canada has responded to American trade enforcement not with negotiation but with retaliatory tariffs that remain in place more than a year after they were imposed.
Trump built USMCA. He has no sentimental attachment to preserving it if it no longer serves American workers and manufacturers. That willingness to revisit even his own accomplishments when the results fall short is worth noting. Too many politicians in both parties treat their legislative achievements as monuments. Trump treats them as tools, and tools that stop working get replaced. His administration has shown the same readiness to restructure institutions that have drifted from their intended purpose.
Canada and Mexico both want renewal. That alone should tell American taxpayers something about who benefits most from the current arrangement. Ottawa maintains retaliatory tariffs on American steel and aluminum while simultaneously asking Washington to extend the deal that gives Canadian goods preferential access to U.S. markets. The contradiction is obvious.
The July 1 deadline is less than three weeks away. Greer's comments suggest Mexico may be closer to a workable arrangement than Canada. But the president's public posture, refusing to commit to renewal and insisting that both neighbors "treat us better", sets the terms for whatever comes next.
Meanwhile, Trump's willingness to challenge existing frameworks extends well beyond trade. From judicial appointments to executive reorganization, the pattern is consistent: no arrangement survives on inertia alone. It has to earn its place.
A president willing to walk away from his own signature deal is a president whose trading partners should take seriously. Canada and Mexico have three weeks to decide whether they believe him.
